What’s going on? Something is definitely going on.
- US missile defence complex in Poland and Czech Republic was scrapped (or put on hold) by Obama that pleased Russia as it won’t have the NATO bases right at its Western borders to monitor the Russia’s airspace up to Urals. Therefore, the military threats and/or campaign in the Eastern Europe from Russia remained viable i.e. Russia maintained its remote but military influence over the Eastern Europe as Europe is not safe from Russian aggression – this was a major concession to Russia by NATO;
- NATO is pulling out its combat troops from Iraq and Afghanistan that also pleases Russia and is in Russia’s interest not to have the NATO bases in its backyard, on its southern borders and in the countries of its influence back in 80s – this was another concession to Russia by NATO;
- By military aggression and capture of Abkhazia and South Osetia, Russia virtually ceased hope of the Southern Caucasus (Georgia) integration in to the NATO. The world and the NATO have accepted the “new political reality”, as termed by Russia, and they didn’t do much or are doing almost nothing to reverse this – this too constitutes major geo-political concession to Russia by NATO;
- Russia is reinforcing its Black Sea fleet and it claims to deploy permanent flotilla in the Mediterranean Sea near Syria, allegedly in support of Assad’s regime;
- Russia is expanding and further reinforcing its military bases in Abkhazia and South Osetia (South Caucasus);
- Russia is strengthening its engagement with Afghanistan and Iraq, at this stage only through capacity building, economic and cultural means;
- Russia actively (including militarily) supports Assad’s regime;
- Russia opposes and doesn’t cooperate in quelling the Iranian nuclear ambitions and aggressive politics in the Middle East;
From a dilettante in these affairs like me, it seems that while the NATO is receding and giving up its positions, Russia is actively trying to expand and regain its influence over the territories it controlled during the Soviet times. Or is it just me?
Has there been any geopolitical or global deal reached between the West and Russia? Several high level politicians including Mme Clinton have mentioned several times that the current world architecture and design have to be revised – are these processes part of redesigning the world?